The Moonshot MEA (Middle East and Africa) Snapshot Series focuses on Moonshot’s online harms and violent extremism work across the Middle East and Africa. Our analysis aims to highlight key developments and evolving narratives, and share new insights across the regions.
This is the sixth post in a monthly sub-series of our analysis on pro-Daesh and pro-AQ online discourse.
July 2022
During July, Moonshot collected and analyzed over 800 posts across pro-Daesh and pro-al-Qaeda (AQ) channels on encrypted platforms and identified their relevance to geographic regions. Posts classified as regional were focused on events taking place in specific countries/regions. Posts identified as non-regional were not linked to a physical event or were primarily significant to each group’s global narratives.
This infographic illustrates the discourses identified, providing a summary of the primary topics and an analysis of the narratives disseminated by the two groups and their supporters.
Key findings
- Posts discussing Africa dominated discussion across both pro-Daesh and pro-AQ channels. Events in this region accounted for all of the top three topics of discussion amongst AQ supporters.
- Discussion of Africa on pro-AQ channels was primarily linked to attacks by the group’s Somalia affiliate, al-Shabaab, with particular emphasis on recently escalating cross-border attacks into Ethiopia.
- On pro-Daesh channels, the most prevalent topic related to Africa was the group’s July 5 attack on Nigeria’s Kuje prison, on the outskirts of the capital, Abuja.
Pro-Daesh Channels
Three main narratives identified across pro-Daesh channels were the group’s attacks and developments in:
- Nigeria (20%)
- Syria (10%)
- The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (9%)
Analysis of regional and non-regional posts
In July 2022, 45% of regional posts were related to Africa (excluding North Africa). Of these, 45% of posts were related to Daesh’s attacks and developments in Nigeria. Notably, Daesh supporters dedicated a significant volume of discussion to the group’s July 5 attack on Nigeria’s Kuje prison, on the outskirts of Abuja. The second highest volume of posts on Africa were relevant to Daesh’s attacks and local developments in the DRC, amounting to 20% of posts on Africa.
Posts relevant to the Middle East and North African (MENA) were largely linked to Daesh’s attacks and other developments in Syria, amounting to 31% of posts on the region. A large proportion of posts were also linked to attacks and developments in Iraq and Sinai, amounting to 18% and 15% of MENA-linked posts, respectively.
68% of posts relating to Asia discussed Afghanistan. These discussed attacks by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) against the Taliban and non-Sunni Muslim religious minorities in the country.
All posts identified regarding North America discussed U.S. President Joe Biden’s July 21 COVID-19 diagnosis. The most-discussed topic within posts relevant to Europe was the ongoing war in Ukraine. 50% of posts not relevant to any region consisted of guidance shared among Daesh supporters, this included bomb-making and weapons guidance, cyber-security tips and calls for supporters to carry out “media jihad” (disseminating Daesh’s propaganda online).
Pro-Al Qaeda Channels
Three main narratives discussed across pro-AQ channels were:
- Al-Shabaab attacks (29%)
- Al-Shabaab celebrates Eid in Somalia (14%)
- Death of senior al-Shabaab-affiliated scholar, Noor Muallem Abdul Rahman (11%)
Analysis of regional and non-regional posts
In July 2022, 62% of regional posts were related to Africa (excluding North Africa). Of these, 29% were related to al-Shabaab’s attacks in Somalia, in particular a border skirmish with joint Ethiopian and Somali militaries.
Posts related to MENA (24%) were connected to U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to the region; a bombing in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-controlled Idlib, northwest Syria; and the storming of the Iraqi parliament.
Posts related to Europe (4%) were linked to the Russia-Ukraine war as well as the resignation of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson; the majority of posts related to Asia (1%) discussed the storming of the Sri Lankan Presidential Palace; and posts focusing on North America (1%) were linked to U.S. congressional and civic politics.
10% of posts were not linked to a specific region, 47% of which provided audiences with practical advice: from cybersecurity tips, to counter-intelligence guides, to how to conduct “tunnel [underground] warfare”.
Please get in touch if you have questions or want to chat to one of our Salafi Jihadism experts at: info@moonshotteam.com
